Pine Island Weather Blog

The Atlantic Hurricane season is officially over and it’s time to summarize the results. I’m a little late with this but TS Olga made me wait a bit longer than I originally anticipated.

This years season saw:

Compare this to the May 2007 pre-season predictions:

Updating our margin of error tables for the last 3 years using the May pre-season predictions (Negative numbers indicated by (parenthesis)):

It’s important to note that because we’re looking at small numbers, the margin of error is going to be exaggerated when expressing it as a percentage. I only do so to illustrate a point. And that point is that extended forecasting is meaningless and an exercise in futility. It is a source of continual frustration to me to see all the hand wringing and stress the average individual goes through when the experts predict a more active than normal season and the complacency that results in a forecast of below average season. People treat the forecasts as “facts” when what they really are are educated guesses. Educated guesses are still guesses and are not facts, no matter what agency provides them.

With my rant out of the way let’s get on to a look back at the 2007 Atlantic season.  2007 was quite an interesting season in a number of ways. Here are a few facts:

• The season was very close to being dead on the averages with the only exception being the number of named storms which came in above average with 15 actual vs. 11 average. Both the number of hurricanes and the number of major hurricanes were on the averages of 6 and 2 respectively.
• For the first time ever, at least since these things have been recorded, two category 5 hurricanes, Dean and Felix made landfall in the Atlantic basin. At landfall Dean had 165mph winds, and Felix had 160mph winds.
• September looked like it was going to prove the high predictions for the number of storms in 2007, tying September 2002 for the most storm formations in a month with 8.
• Hurricane Humberto grew from a tropical depression with 35mph winds to a cat1 hurricane with 85mph winds in 24 hours. This represent the fourth fastest intensification to a hurricane in the records. It was the fastest intensification ever for a storm so close to land (15 miles). It was also the first hurricane to make landfall in the US since Wilma in 2005.
• All of 2007’s hurricanes maxed as either cat1 or cat5. No in-betweens. The first two hurricanes of the year, Dean and Felix, were cat5.
• The 2007 Atlantic season started before the “official” June 1 begin date with Subtropical Storm Andrea on May 9th. The season likewise ended after the “official” end date of November 30th with Tropical Storm Olga which formed as a subtropical storm on December 10th before being designated as a tropical storm on December 11th.

Here’s hoping 2008 is as uneventful for SWFL (and others as well) as 2007 was.

TS Noel is now Hurricane Noel. Contrary to most predictions, Noel has managed to beef himself up a bit and winds have increased to 80mph. The storm has begun to pick up some forward speed as was predicted and is now moving at 17mph to the NE. With the next 12 or so hours we should begin to see the transition from tropical cyclone to extra-tropical.

The difference between the two is difficult to explain in lay terms, but one of the characteristics that differentiate tropical from extra-tropical systems is where they get their energy. Tropical systems get their energy from the latent heat of condensation of the big storms near the center. Extra-tropical systems get their energy from the horizontal temperature differences in the atmosphere.

That’s a very simplistic view of course, but I think it does help us to understand what will be happening. Essentially, Noel is going to stop pumping in energy from the ocean and turn into a more “normal” storm system like the fronts we see every day, albeit, a very, very strong one. As a result, Noel’s transition from tropical to extra-tropical system doesn’t mean the fun will be over. Noel will remain a very strong storm even after loosing it’s tropical characteristics and the next day or two could get very interesting for folks in the projected path.

TS Noel has moved back out over water and is currently generating 60mph winds. Those winds are currently not expected to increase due to a variety of factors. TS Noel should not be in the area for very much longer as it is forecast to get picked up by a trough and accelerate quickly out of the are about 12 hours out.

Tropical Storm warnings are now in effect for most of Southeast FL. For SWFL, we should see another day much like yesterday, with windy conditions and the possible occasional fast moving brief rain showers.

 

The center of TS Noel is now located over Cuba. Wind speeds are in the 50mph range and are expect to increase over the next day or two once the storm gets back over water. That intensification is not expected to last very long though as wind shear should begin to have a big impact on the storm by Friday. As a result it appears unlikely that TS Noel will reach hurricane status though it will be very close.

As expected yesterday, TD 16 has been upgraded to TS Noel. The models are finally reaching a concensus on the general direction and as a result the forecasters seem to have a better handle on the forecast track. TS Noel is now expected to track across Hispaniola and the Bahamas and then out into the Atlantic. This track takes us well out of the cone of uncertainty so at the moment, this looks like a non-event for SWFL. It is not forecast to reach hurricane strength.