Pine Island Weather Blog

The NHC is watching a disturbance in the Caribbean just south of Puerto Rico. Conditions are gradually getting more favorable for development and based on current information I believe we will see this upgraded to a Tropical Depression before the day is out.

09/21/08 12:15 Satellite

Didn’t get a chance to provide any updates yesterday but today Ike is pretty much smack dab in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico.

As has been the case for pretty much most of its existence, Ike isn’t doing quite what has been expected of it. Ike appears to be nicely organized, but despite that it’s winds aren’t quite one would expect given it’s central pressure of 946mb. Normally, that kind of pressure would correspond to winds in the 130mph range (cat3-cat4), but Ike is currently only managing winds of 100mph making it a cat2. 

What Ike does have going for it is a huge windfield. Ike is a very large storm, as those of us in SWFL can attest to given it’s impact on us yesterday. Ike was never really close to us but despite that we saw heavy rains, stiff winds and some pretty significant tides. Hurricane force winds extend as far out from the center as 115 miles! Tropical storm force winds are being felt as far away as 255 miles. That’s one big storm!

On the track front, Ike hasn’t really picked up as much forward speed as was anticipated. This has resulted in significant changes to the track over the last several days as the steering systems have continued to come and go while Ike leisurely makes it’s way westward. The model guidance is in fairly good agreement at this point that Ike will make landfall somewhere along the central Texas gulf coast. However, given its continued slow movement, and its very large size, I will not be surprised if we see more changes in that forecast track late tonight or tomorrow.

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 09/11/08 05:00AM

As I anticipated yesterday, Ike’s forecast track has shifted significantly southward along the Texas coast and is now centered on the Texas/Mexico border. Overnight Ike has finally begun to pick up a slight northern component though it still appears to me that this northward movement still isn’t quite was being called for. Based on that I would not be surprised to see the track shift even more towards Mexico.

Ike should begin a second crossing of Cuba some time today, and given that it is barely a hurricane with 80mph winds, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see it come off of Cuba as a tropical storm. I don’t think that will happen, but it certainly wouldn’t surprise me.

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 09/09/08 8:00AM

As I mentioned in my 10:00AM post this morning, Ike has not yet begun any northward movement. As a result, Ike is moving back over water and since it was not over Cuba as long as anticipated, it has not lost much of it’s strength. Maximum sustained winds are now 100mph and expected to increase.

Most forecasts at this point are still counting on the northward turn to begin at any moment so the forecast tracks have only shifted ever so slightly south and west at this point. I still see no indication as of yet of this northward movement so I’m reluctant to buy into the forecasts until I do.

There is good and bad about a continued westward movement. The obvious bad aspect is that more time over warm waters should result in increased intensity. The good part of continued westward movement is that it increases the odds, for now at least, that Ike will impact a less populated area at landfall. If we don’t begin to see that northward turn in the next several hours, I’d anticipate a significant change to the forecast track southwestward along the Texas coast.

For SWFL more directly, continued westward movement decreases the odds that we will see any significant weather from Ike. As is often the case with tropical systems, we’ll just have to wait and see.

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 09/08/08 11:00AM

I’ve been looking at the satellite and Cuban radar loops and I still do not see the anticipated direction change to a more northward motion. Everything I see at this point sure looks like Ike is heading due west at heading of very close to 270°. If Ike doesn’t begin making the northern move soon it will be back over water and we’re going to have to modify our thinking on the intensity and possibly even the track. In fact it looks to me as if the center of Ike is already over water off the south coast of Cuba.

The 11:00 update should be interesting.